By Dr. Adnan Bozan
In recent days, we have witnessed an unprecedented escalation between Iran and Israel. The confrontation has moved beyond indirect conflict and limited security skirmishes to a state of open war with multiple dimensions: missiles, assassinations, cyber operations, and drone attacks.
This is not a traditional war between two standing armies on a defined battlefield. Rather, it is a hybrid war in which geography intersects with technology, religion with geopolitics, and overt operations with covert ones — a war entangled with both internal and external actors.
The Present: A Complex and Intertwined War Scene
At this very moment, the war cannot be confined to the borders of Iran and Israel alone. The multiple fronts from which the flames have erupted — from southern Lebanon, through Syria, to Iraq and Yemen — reflect the networked nature of the conflict. Iran is fighting both directly and through its ideological and military proxies, while Israel responds with direct force, relying on its superiority in air power, technology, and cyber capabilities.
Iran retaliates using medium- and long-range missiles and depends on its regional arms to carry out precise and calculated strikes. Yet despite this momentum, it lacks effective air cover and does not possess advanced missile defense systems. In contrast, Israel owns highly developed defense systems, such as the Iron Dome and Arrow, which enable it to intercept a large proportion of incoming attacks.
However, this military equation is not determined by numbers and technology alone, but by psychological, social, and political factors. Both states suffer internally: Iran faces a suffocating economic crisis, growing public anger, and deep fractures within state institutions. Meanwhile, despite its military strength, Israel is plagued by sharp internal divisions, a torn relationship between the state and its society, and the rise of fascist currents that weaken internal cohesion.
The Future: Three Possible Paths
The current war is unlikely to end quickly, nor through a conventional victory for either side. Rather, the trajectory is expected to move toward one of three potential scenarios — or a complex combination of them.
- The Full-Scale War Scenario
The war could escalate to include the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities and the devastation of its infrastructure, pushing the country back to the aftermath of the Iran–Iraq War — but this time with no clear path to recovery. This scenario carries with it the possibility of Iran's disintegration into sectarian or ethnic entities, as occurred in Iraq and Syria, especially if accompanied by overt American or international support for restructuring Iran from within.
However, this escalation would also open the gates of hell for Israel, exposing it to intense missile barrages from Hezbollah and possibly deep internal attacks that are difficult to contain. Tel Aviv could be struck with more missiles than it can intercept, making a military "victory" come at the cost of a long-term strategic loss.
- The Prolonged Proxy War Scenario
This is the most likely scenario in the medium term, where no one wins decisively, and the war continues through indirect tools and proxies. Syria remains a hotbed, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq escalate attacks against American and Israeli interests, the Houthis move to disrupt maritime routes, and Hezbollah continues to wear down Israel without declaring an all-out war.
In this scenario, the geography of battle disintegrates, truth becomes fragmented, and the region is exhausted without any resolution.
- The Coerced Settlement Scenario
This scenario may emerge if the parties become severely fatigued and international pressure intensifies — particularly from the United States, Russia, and China, who do not wish to see a full-blown regional war at this time. In such a case, a political settlement may be imposed after widespread destruction, involving new security arrangements and possibly public or secret agreements that end Iran's nuclear program in exchange for regime survival guarantees and a reconfiguration of regional alliances.
But this would be a settlement built atop rubble, replacing hot war with a "cold truce" rife with mistrust and future uncertainty.
The Broader Impact on the Middle East
The ongoing war is not merely an Iranian–Israeli matter; it strikes at the very core of the Middle East’s regional structure. Every explosion in Tehran or Tel Aviv sends shockwaves through Damascus, Beirut, Baghdad, Riyadh, Ankara, Sana'a, Gaza, Amman, and Cairo.
- Politically: Regimes may fall, and borders may be redrawn.
- Socially: Massive waves of displacement and a resurgence of sectarian and ethnic tensions.
- Economically: Oil prices skyrocket, inflation worsens, and national currencies collapse.
- Culturally and Medially: Hate speech resurges, societies fracture, and war propaganda flourishes.
In Conclusion: A War That Reshapes the Arab World
This is not just a confrontation between two countries — we are living a historic turning point, akin to the world wars or the invasion of Iraq. What is unfolding now could very well be the spark that ignites the implementation of a "New Middle East Map" — not through the ink of Sykes–Picot agreements, but through fire and ruin.
Who will win? Perhaps no one.
Who will lose? Most likely... everyone.
But the most urgent question remains:
What will be left of the Middle East after this war?
Will we witness the birth of new states? Or a long and bitter devastation?
Could a new Middle East emerge from the womb of wounds?
Or will we continue to reproduce ourselves from our own ashes... as corpses without a future?
Only time will tell.
But what can be said now — with unwavering certainty — is:
We have entered a new phase of history... one with no return