Azadi Post: The Syrian arena has witnessed a significant development with the tripartite meeting that brought together leaders from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Syrian Democratic Council (MSD), and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. This meeting, which resulted in a series of understandings with the Syrian government, reflects important shifts in the political and military landscape of the region amid rapid regional and international developments.

First: Dimensions of the Agreement – Repositioning or Full Integration?

One of the most notable outcomes of the meeting was the agreement to integrate the SDF and the security institutions affiliated with the Autonomous Administration into the official structure of the Syrian army. This step is not merely an organizational change but a well-calculated strategic rapprochement aimed at unifying armed forces under a national umbrella—something Damascus has long sought.

However, the key question remains: does this integration represent a tactical maneuver to avoid a potential confrontation with government forces, or is it an indication of full engagement in the official military structure? The answer lies in the actual implementation of this agreement on the ground, especially given the complexities of the relationship between Damascus and the SDF, which has long maintained a certain distance between its political project and Syrian centralization.

Second: Institutional Repositioning – Strengthening Influence or Making Concessions?

The agreement was not limited to the military aspect but also included the reactivation of Syrian state civil and service institutions in areas under the control of the Autonomous Administration. This effectively means reinforcing Damascus' presence in the northeast after years of self-administration in these areas.

However, an important question arises: does this move indicate a concession by the Autonomous Administration on its federal project, or is it a political maneuver to alleviate military and economic pressures?

Third: Withdrawal from the International Agenda – The Fate of Foreign Fighters

A crucial aspect of the agreement was the expulsion of all non-Syrian fighters from SDF ranks, which extends beyond the local context to regional and international dimensions. Western powers, particularly the United States, have long used the SDF as a strategic card in the Syrian conflict.

If this agreement is fully implemented, it could signal a reduction in American influence in the region and an enhancement of rapprochement opportunities between Damascus and its allies in the "Axis of Resistance."

Fourth: The Impact of Political Changes in Damascus

This agreement comes amid political changes in Damascus, following the rise of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa to power after the ousting of Bashar al-Assad's regime. SDF commander Mazloum Abdi has already congratulated Al-Sharaa, emphasizing the need to strengthen internal dialogue and even inviting the new president to visit the northeastern regions. This suggests an increasing willingness to engage in a comprehensive political process.

However, significant obstacles still hinder a final understanding, particularly regarding the nature of governance in the Autonomous Administration areas, the mechanisms of military integration, and guarantees concerning the rights of different communities, especially the Kurds.

Fifth: Future Scenarios – What Are the Possible Outcomes?

1. Gradual Integration: The agreement could be implemented in stages, starting with the return of service institutions, followed by security and military matters, in a bid to achieve a smooth integration between the SDF and the Syrian army.

2. External Obstruction: It is possible that certain international parties, especially the United States, may attempt to obstruct this process, given their reliance on the SDF as a proxy force for their interests.

3. Failure of the Agreement: The agreement could collapse if sufficient guarantees are not provided to the Autonomous Administration or if internal divisions within the SDF arise regarding the extent of their commitment to these understandings.

Conclusion

The tripartite meeting between the SDF, MSD, and the Autonomous Administration marks a pivotal moment in the relationship between northeastern Syria and Damascus. While the announced agreements hint at a potential breakthrough in the crisis, their implementation remains subject to local and international dynamics.

This leaves open-ended questions about the future of this rapprochement: is it a prelude to a comprehensive political solution, or merely a temporary tactical move in the complex Syrian power balance? The coming days will reveal the paths this agreement will take and whether it can withstand the intertwined challenges shaping the Syrian landscape.