By: Dr. Adnan Bouzan 

Introduction: Toward a New Political Map for the Region The Middle East is heading toward profound transformations in its political and geographical structures, driven by a combination of international and regional interventions aimed at reshaping the region to align with the interests of major powers, particularly the United States, Russia, and Israel. At the heart of these transformations lies Syria, which has become the focal point of political and military conflict. However, the repercussions of these changes extend to other countries like Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Iran, redrawing the map of the Middle East in unprecedented ways and placing the peoples of the region before existential challenges. First: Syria and New Scenarios 1. Dividing Syria into Multiple Regions: The move toward federalism in Syria is one of the most prominent scenarios that major powers are working to impose. This approach is based on dividing Syria into autonomous regions to ensure the distribution of influence among local and international parties. The proposed regions include: • East Euphrates Region: Controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with direct U.S. and European support. Western powers avoid naming it a "Kurdish region" to prevent provoking Turkey, but it forms the basis for a new reality for the Kurds in Syria. • Afrin Region: It may become part of the federal Syrian structure, with direct support from the international coalition. The U.S. and its allies aim to empower "Peshmerga Roj" to play a key role in this region. • Druze Region in the South: With direct Israeli support, a region is expected to emerge to secure the Israeli-Syrian border, ensuring the stability of the Golan and southern Syria. • Alawite Region on the Coast: Likely to receive French backing to protect the Alawite minority and link the coast to European and Western interests. • Damascus as a Buffer Zone: The capital will become a neutral area, not fully controlled by any party, to prevent new conflicts among the regions. 2. Declining Turkish Influence: Turkey faces intense Western pressure to reduce its presence in Syria. Economic and political sanctions may be the primary tools used to force it to withdraw, reshaping the control map in northern Syria in favor of Western-backed local forces. 3. Israel’s Role in Redrawing the Map: Israel plays a central role in promoting Syria's internal division, whether by supporting the establishment of a Druze region in the south or through diplomatic pressure to maintain balances that ensure its long-term national security. ________________________________________ Second: Lebanon Under Israeli Influence 1. Electing a President Under Israeli Oversight: Despite Lebanon electing a new president, Israeli influence in Lebanese politics has become increasingly apparent. This influence is exercised through economic and diplomatic pressures aimed at: • Ending Hezbollah’s role as a military and political force. • Transforming Lebanon into a state under international guardianship that serves Western and Israeli interests. 2. Dismantling Hezbollah's Power: Western and Israeli pressures aim to diminish Hezbollah’s influence through: • Imposing strict sanctions on entities linked to the group. • Supporting the Lebanese Army as an alternative to the military force Hezbollah represents. • Targeting Iranian support for Hezbollah through international negotiations. ________________________________________ Third: Yemen and Changing the Political Equation 1. Ending the Role of the Houthis: The Yemeni conflict is entering a decisive phase, with the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE working to neutralize the Houthis politically and militarily. The proposed scenario includes: • Escalating military operations in Houthi strongholds. • Strengthening a government recognized internationally to ensure long-term political stability. 2. Dividing Yemen into North and South: The return to a two-state model in Yemen is becoming increasingly certain: • Southern Yemen: With Emirati and Saudi backing, it will become an independent state seeking economic and political stability to serve Gulf interests. • Northern Yemen: May remain under the control of a relatively weak government, ensuring it poses no regional threat. ________________________________________ Fourth: Iraq and the Challenges of Division 1. Toward a Sunni Region in the Center: Iraq faces growing possibilities of division, with discussions about forming a Sunni region in central Iraq, supported by Gulf and American efforts, to serve as a geopolitical buffer reducing Iranian influence in the region. 2. Enhancing Kurdistan's Independence: The Kurdistan Region of Iraq is gaining more autonomy, becoming a political and economic hub due to international support, serving as a federal model for the region. ________________________________________ Fifth: Iran and Political Restructuring 1. Overthrowing the Regime: The West aims to topple Iran's regime through strategies ranging from internal pressure to restructuring the political scene: • Supporting the symbolic return of the Pahlavi dynasty. • Transforming Iran into a federal state to reduce centralization of power. 2. Impact on Turkey: Weakening Iran politically and militarily will create direct pressures on Turkey, potentially leading to a reduction in its regional influence. ________________________________________ Sixth: Ukraine and Rebalancing the Global Order 1. Dividing Ukraine into East and West: The Ukrainian crisis may culminate in dividing the country into: • Eastern Ukraine: Under Russian influence. • Western Ukraine: Under European influence. 2. Reshaping NATO: Conflicts within NATO, particularly with Turkey, may lead to the alliance’s restructuring, reinforcing Western dominance over Europe and the Middle East. ________________________________________ Conclusion: Toward a New Middle East The ongoing transformations in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Iran signal the emergence of a new Middle East shaped by the interests of major powers. While these divisions may appear to be political solutions to ongoing conflicts, they carry the seeds of future disputes that threaten stability. History will record that these changes were not steps toward peace but the beginning of a new era of domination and dependence. The peoples of the region will face economic, social, and security challenges beyond their capacities, keeping the Middle East a hostage to perpetual conflicts.

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