By: Dr. Adnan Bozan

The future of Syria cannot be viewed from a unilateral perspective imposed by force of arms or ideological dominance. The history of the region demonstrates that centralized states built on oppression and authoritarianism have resulted only in destruction, fragmentation, and civil wars. The Ba'athist experience in Syria and Iraq is a clear example, where the state became an instrument in the hands of a single authority, excluding others, suppressing freedoms, and perpetuating authoritarianism in even harsher forms. Rejecting federalism or decentralization under the pretext of preserving the "unity of the country" is merely a reproduction of the same centralized model that has led to Syria’s ongoing catastrophes for decades.

Syria’s current reality cannot withstand a return to the model of a totalitarian state controlled by a centralized authority that monopolizes political, economic, and security decisions. The prolonged years of war have created a new reality that cannot be ignored, where local forces have emerged representing their communities and have proven their ability to manage their own affairs independently of the central authority in Damascus. This reality necessitates a rational and pragmatic approach, rather than attempts to reimpose centralized control by force, as such efforts will only lead to further violence, conflict, and division.

Ignoring the demands of political forces and local communities for self-governance under a decentralized model paves the way for the re-establishment of dictatorship under the guise of a "national state." But what kind of national state are they talking about? Is it a state that marginalizes its components and imposes a singular identity by force? Is it a state that rejects diversity and perceives differences as a threat to its authority? This model has already failed in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen, producing nothing but further oppression, destruction, and suffering.

Adopting a federal or decentralized system does not mean dismantling the state; rather, it is the only way to preserve it and prevent the repetition of past tragedies. Federalism is not secession, and decentralization is not a threat to national unity; instead, they are modern governance mechanisms that have proven successful in multi-ethnic and multi-sectarian states. Insisting on a centralized and authoritarian model, however, is a step toward establishing a police state no different from the regimes that peoples have overthrown or are striving to escape from.

Everyone must recognize that a fundamental transformation in Syria’s state structure is no longer an option that can be avoided. Superficial solutions and attempts to turn back time will not succeed. Syria’s future must be built on genuine democratic foundations that guarantee the rights of all its components and provide governance mechanisms that ensure inclusive participation in decision-making. Those who deny this reality either do not wish Syria well or seek to reinstate an even worse form of authoritarian rule than before.