By Dr. Adnan Bouzan

The current situation in Syria represents a new chapter in a long, unresolved tragedy, reflecting a profound shift in both the political and military landscapes following the collapse of the Ba'athist regime that ruled the country for decades. The fall of this regime, which was considered the backbone of Syria's state structure, was not simply the end of a single-party rule but marked the beginning of a new phase characterized by struggles for power and the fragmentation of Syria into competing spheres of influence. Amid this complex reality, extremist jihadist forces emerged, seeking to seize power and impose their radical ideologies on the ground, notably "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, who was once part of al-Qaeda. Over time, he transformed himself into a key player in the Syrian conflict, where "jihad" turned into a tool for controlling specific territories.

What is happening today in Syria, with the killing of children, women, and elderly people from the Alawite community in coastal Syria by jihadist Islamic factions led by al-Julani and other groups, is a natural result of an escalating sectarian conflict that is becoming more complex and brutal. While the Ba'athist regime exercised repressive control over the Syrian people for decades, the groups fighting the remnants of the regime today, particularly those under the banner of jihad, have adopted similarly brutal, if not more deadly, methods.

The recent escalation points to the overlap of two main factors: First, the sectarian divide, which has become one of the primary drivers of the Syrian conflict, with jihadist groups attempting to impose a "sectarian" form of rule through radical ideologies that target minorities in Syria, especially the Alawites. Second, the infiltration of foreign powers into the conflict, where these powers play a role in exacerbating the conflict by supporting certain groups at the expense of others.

The jihadist ideology adopted by Abu Mohammad al-Julani and his group tries to present themselves as protectors of the Syrian people from the "tyrant" represented by the former Ba'athist regime. However, their actions on the ground contradict this narrative completely. The killing of innocent women, children, and the elderly in Syria's coastal areas and other regions inhabited by Alawite families is not an act of fighting the regime as much as it is an attack on Syrian society's components based on sectarian lines, reflecting a profound failure to build an inclusive national identity that transcends ethnic and religious divides.

On the other hand, this escalation can be viewed in the broader context of the region, where the Syrian conflict forms a link in a chain of widespread crises, from Iraq to Lebanon and beyond, with overlapping regional and international interests, particularly following the U.S. withdrawal from certain positions and the interventions of Iran and Turkey. These interventions are not limited to supplying the various parties with weapons and money, but also include ideological and political support, making the Syrian conflict a living example of the excessive use of violence to achieve political goals through local proxies.

When considering this situation, military concerns alone do not suffice, as the real catastrophe lies in the deepening sectarian and ethnic hostility. The conflict in Syria has become akin to an "identity struggle," one that cannot be resolved by traditional means or through a military victory of any side. Simply put, the idea of "returning to the past"—meaning a return to a unified Syrian state under any regime capable of handling the deep divisions between the warring sects and groups—appears unfeasible.

If there is any hope for a solution, it lies in returning to the idea of national reconciliation, which unfortunately seems very distant at present, given the growing power of jihadist factions that continue to use killing and destruction as tools to achieve their political ambitions. Consequently, any rhetoric that embraces the idea of victory for one sect or military faction over another may lead to a catastrophic result: the permanent division of the country, endless wars, worsening refugee crises, and the absence of security and stability across the region.

What is happening today in Syria is a painful shift in the political and sectarian balances within Syrian society, confirming the reality that the conflict cannot be reduced to a war between the "regime" and the "opposition." Rather, it is a long-term struggle between multiple forces: sectarian, national, and ideological, all clashing to achieve short- and long-term goals that go beyond replacing one ruler with another, reaching toward a sectarian or ideological dream that does not stop at Syria's borders but threatens the stability of the entire region.