Dr. Adnan Bozan

After decades of Ba'athist rule in Syria, its collapse opened the door to radical changes in the political landscape. In the wake of this vacuum, Islamic movements emerged as an alternative political force, driven by years of repression and marginalization. However, the rise of Islamists to power does not necessarily guarantee stability, as it raises fundamental questions about the future of pluralism, the possibility of coexistence among different religious and ethnic groups, and the path of the state amid complex internal and regional challenges. Will the new regime manage to strike a balance between Islamic identity and the demands of pluralism, or will Syria face another cycle of conflicts and divisions?

Introduction: From Tyranny to Islamism 

After decades of Ba'athist authoritarian rule in Syria, where power was concentrated in the hands of military and security elites, the system collapsed due to internal and external factors. In the aftermath of this collapse, Islamic movements—which had long been subjected to repression and exclusion—found an opportunity to emerge as an alternative force to fill the political vacuum. However, this transition was not merely a replacement of one regime with another; it represented a comprehensive reshaping of the state's and society's identity amid internal, regional, and international changes.

Islamism and Power: Between Ideology and Political Reality

The rise of Islamists to power in Syria opens the door to several potential scenarios, most notably:

1. The Moderate Conservative Model: Seeks to integrate Islam into politics flexibly, while maintaining some aspects of pluralism, similar to the early years of Turkey's Justice and Development Party.

2. The Radical Model: Syria turns into an Islamic state like Iran or Afghanistan under Taliban rule, with the imposition of a strict interpretation of Islamic law.

3. The Pragmatic Model: Combines Islamic identity with interaction with international powers, attempting to strike a balance between ideology and political and economic interests. Regardless of the model adopted by the Islamists, their presence in power will pose major political challenges, especially in managing Syria's sectarian and ethnic diversity.

The Fate of Minorities: Between Anxiety and Resistance 

Religious and ethnic minorities—including Alawites, Christians, Druze, Yazidis, Kurds, and others—represent the cornerstone of the political and social challenges ahead. With the fall of the Ba'ath regime, which relied on minority alliances to maintain power, these minorities will face a volatile situation characterized by: 

1. Fear of Marginalization and Revenge: Some Islamic factions may view minorities, especially Alawites, as extensions of the former regime, exposing them to persecution or displacement. 2. Reconstructing National Identity: Islamists will need to redefine the Syrian identity to include or exclude minorities, which could either lead to increased sectarianism or to a negotiated solution requiring concessions from all parties.

3. Seeking International Protection: Minorities may seek international support to protect their interests, as happened with the Kurds in various stages, leading to external interventions that could complicate the political scene.

The Future Political Landscape: Between Conflict and Stability 

It is impossible to imagine Syria's future after the fall of the Ba'ath regime and the rise of Islamism without considering regional and international influences. Therefore, several possible scenarios can be drawn: 

1. Scenario of Ongoing Internal Conflict: If Islamists fail to embrace pluralism or insist on imposing an exclusionary model of governance, the country may slide into chaos and ongoing civil war, with resistance from minorities and some secular and civil forces.

2. Scenario of Federalism or Actual Division: If coexistence between different groups proves impossible, Syria may move toward models of regional self-rule, where each area maintains its own particularities, possibly leading to the emergence of a federal entity or even an actual division of the state

. 3. Scenario of Containment and Gradual Transition: If Islamic forces succeed in presenting a more open and pragmatic model of governance, Syria may enter a new phase of stability. However, this would require profound internal changes in the structure of Islamic political thought and its ability to accept pluralism.

Conclusion: Syria Between Competing Identities and Possible Balance

The future of Syria remains contingent upon how the new Islamic authorities will deal with the political, social, and economic challenges. If Islamists adopt an authoritarian model, the country will remain a battleground for regional and local conflicts. However, if they manage to build a consensus-based model that recognizes pluralism and preserves at least the minimum of equal rights and citizenship, there may be hope for long-term stability.

Syria after the fall of the Ba'ath will not be the same as it was before, and Syrian society faces a historical challenge to reshape its state based on new equations. The question remains: Will this state be built on consensus-based foundations that embrace all, or on exclusion that will lead to further cycles of violence and collapse?

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