By: Dr. Adnan Bozan 

The political situation in Syria is undergoing profound transformations after years of intense conflict, which has led to deep changes in both the political and military landscapes of the country. Following years of military confrontations and shifting regional and international dynamics, new forces have emerged on the scene. Among the most prominent are hardline armed factions that have managed to extend their influence over parts of the country, capitalizing on the political vacuum and the weakness of traditional power structures. This shift has been driven by several factors, including external support for certain factions, the collapse of official institutions, and the reconfiguration of regional and international alliances that once backed different sides of the conflict.

This new reality has raised critical questions about the fate of the country and the future of its ethnic and sectarian components, which have long been integral to Syria’s social fabric. Among these issues, the Kurdish situation stands out, as they have managed to establish a self-administration in the eastern Euphrates region during the years of war. However, this administration now faces unprecedented challenges, especially with the rise of new forces seeking to restructure power in Syria according to different ideological visions.

Despite the military and economic challenges facing the self-administration, it continues to receive partial support from some regional and international powers, which view its survival as a crucial factor in maintaining the balance of power in the region. However, increasing military pressure, economic blockades, and the lack of broad international recognition threaten the existence of this entity, particularly if major powers shift their political priorities and reshape regional agreements.

The eastern Euphrates region, which over the past decade has been a battleground for influence between the United States, Russia, and Turkey, now stands at a critical juncture. As instability persists, regional interventions have intensified, particularly by Ankara, which perceives any Kurdish political project as a direct threat to its national security. This has led Turkey to escalate its military operations in northern Syria in an attempt to redraw political and military balances in line with its interests. Meanwhile, Kurdish factions face internal divisions and external pressures that complicate their ability to navigate these evolving dynamics.

On the other hand, the hardline factions that have seized control over certain areas in Syria recognize that an open confrontation with the Kurds could lead to the depletion of their resources and potentially open the door to new international interventions. Therefore, some of these groups are seeking to establish settlements, either by co-opting certain Kurdish factions or by gradually undermining the self-administration through policies designed to erode its authority without engaging in a costly direct conflict.

On the international level, positions remain divided. Russia is striving to reinforce its influence in Syria through new alliances, while the United States, despite scaling back its military presence, maintains a limited but strategic role in certain areas, allowing it to intervene if the balance of power shifts unfavorably. However, any change in the U.S. administration or a shift in Washington’s foreign policy priorities could lead to unexpected developments in the Syrian landscape.

Amid these complexities, Syria appears to be heading toward a new phase of instability, with the future remaining uncertain due to the absence of a unified vision among the key players on the ground. The Kurds face difficult choices between preserving their political and administrative gains or engaging in compromises that could diminish their influence. Meanwhile, armed factions continue to consolidate their rule amid mounting internal and external challenges. As for the international community, its stance remains indecisive—oscillating between supporting certain actors and adapting to the rapidly evolving realities imposed by the ongoing developments in Syria.

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