By: Dr. Adnan Bouzan

First: Introduction to the Agreement and Its Importance:

This agreement represents a significant development in the Syrian political landscape, reflecting a shift in the relationship between the Syrian state and the Kurdish component, and opening the door to more stable solutions for areas outside the control of the central government. It also lays the foundation for Syria's future by ensuring the participation of all components of the Syrian people in the political process, restructuring civil and military institutions, and addressing issues related to displaced persons and citizenship rights.

Despite some ambiguity in certain provisions, the agreement carries important strategic implications, as it marks the first time that the Kurdish rights within the Syrian state have been officially recognized. This contributes to ending accusations of separatism and limits the attempts of some parties to exploit the Kurdish issue for external agendas.

Second: Analysis of the Main Provisions of the Agreement:

1. Ensuring the rights of all Syrians in political and administrative representation based on competence.

This provision is one of the key pillars of any sustainable political solution in Syria, as discrimination based on religious or ethnic grounds has been one of the causes of the erosion of the Syrian state and the exacerbation of the crisis. This provision strengthens the idea of building a modern citizenship state based on competence, where everyone is given the opportunity to participate in political and administrative life according to their qualifications, not based on their sectarian or national affiliations.

This principle requires radical reforms in the Syrian political system, including constitutional amendments, restructuring the electoral system, and establishing mechanisms to ensure the integrity of elections, preventing any form of political quotas or discrimination in state institutions.

2. Recognizing the Kurdish community as an indigenous component and ensuring its constitutional rights.

This provision represents a precedent in Syrian political history, as the Kurds had never been constitutionally recognized before and had faced legal and administrative marginalization for decades. Including this provision in the agreement sets the foundation for the active participation of Kurds in Syrian political life, ensuring their cultural, social, and political rights, which contributes to achieving genuine integration of the Kurdish community into the national fabric of Syria.

However, the mechanisms for implementing this recognition remain unclear. Will there be special political representation for the Kurds? Will their language and culture be included in the curriculum? Will they have self-administration within the framework of the central state? These questions require further clarification to ensure that this provision does not become meaningless.

3. A ceasefire across all Syrian territories.

A ceasefire is the cornerstone of any successful political process, as continued armed conflict hinders any efforts for a peaceful resolution. However, the effectiveness of this provision depends on the commitment of all parties, especially external powers supporting some armed factions.

Furthermore, the ceasefire will create a more stable environment conducive to reconstruction and the return of displaced persons, but it requires international monitoring and guarantees from all parties for adherence, which may be challenging given the complexities of the Syrian situation.

4. Integrating the civil and military institutions of Northeast Syria into the state's administration.

This provision is one of the most sensitive, as it involves integrating the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the Syrian state system, which means the government regaining control over border crossings, airports, and oil and gas fields.> However, the practical implementation of this provision requires clarification: Will the SDF be restructured and integrated into the Syrian army as regular forces? Or will they become a local security force under state supervision? Additionally, the issue of sharing oil revenues will be a major point of contention, as the self-administration in the region has relied on these resources to finance its operations.

5. Ensuring the return of all displaced persons and ensuring their protection.

This provision is one of the urgent demands of the Syrians, especially with millions of refugees abroad and internally displaced persons within the country.

However, its success depends on several factors, including:

• Providing security guarantees for displaced persons upon their return.

• Rebuilding the destroyed infrastructure.

• Finding solutions to property ownership issues, as many properties were confiscated or seized during the conflict.

• Preventing any retaliatory operations or political or sectarian purges.

6. Supporting the Syrian state in combating remnants of Assad and security threats.

This refers to sending SDF forces to the Syrian coast instead of the forces of the general administration under the new Damascus authority. This indicates a strategic military and security move aimed at reorganizing security and control in vital areas, such as the Syrian coast, which was previously under the significant influence of the former regime.

This provision marks a radical shift in how coastal areas, previously controlled by the general administration forces which were unwelcome by the coast’s residents, are managed. In other words, this move could be an attempt to restructure the security forces and transfer control of some areas to new forces, such as the SDF, instead of the forces under the Damascus authority, which have been accused of numerous political and human rights violations in recent times.

• Potential impacts of this move:

• Redistribution of military power: If the SDF forces replace the security forces of the Damascus authority in coastal areas, it could end the previous regime’s interventions in these areas and grant the SDF an active role in managing public security. This requires further coordination between the SDF and the Syrian state to ensure the region’s stability.

• Rebuilding trust between the SDF and the Syrian state: Sending SDF forces to the coast would be a step toward strengthening trust between the Kurds and the Syrian state, marking a significant change in how the central authority manages areas that were considered the regime’s sphere of influence.

• Security and field challenges: In reality, the SDF may face significant difficulties in completing this task due to the complexities of the security and field situation in the Syrian coast, which still faces challenges from extremist groups or armed factions operating in some areas. Additionally, this move could provoke opposition from local or international powers with interests in maintaining the status quo.

• Role of international and regional powers: Changing the security force in these areas could provoke reactions from countries supporting the Syrian regime, such as Russia and Iran, especially if the SDF takes steps that contradict their or the regime’s interests. For example, tensions between the SDF and the regime’s military backers could increase if there is an attempt to restructure the military power in these areas in a way that bypasses the regime.

• Political and economic dimensions: Politically, sending SDF forces to the coast could be viewed as a step toward reinforcing the Syrian state's authority at the expense of the remnants of the former regime, which could affect the political balance within post-war Syria.

In general, enhancing security and combating groups that threaten Syria's stability is essential, but this must be done within a legal framework that ensures transitional justice and does not turn into retaliatory operations or systematic exclusion of any political party.

7. Rejecting calls for division and hate speech.

This provision is an essential foundation for building a unified Syria, especially with the rise of separatist tendencies and sectarian rhetoric during the years of conflict.

However, achieving this requires:

• Changing the official media discourse to make it inclusive rather than exclusionary.

• Modifying educational curricula to promote the concept of citizenship.

• Taking legal measures against any calls for discrimination or sectarian incitement.

8. Setting a timeline for the implementation of the agreement before the end of the year.

Setting a deadline is a positive factor, but it may be unrealistic given the current circumstances, as implementing these provisions requires complex legislative, administrative, and military steps, making it difficult to achieve them fully within a short period.

Third: The Importance of the Agreement and Its Impact on the Syrian Scene:

This agreement represents a significant shift in the relationship between the Syrian state and the Kurdish component, and it also carries regional and international implications, including:

1. Reducing Turkish Influence: By avoiding a potential confrontation with Turkey and alleviating Ankara's concerns about the existence of an "independent Kurdish entity."

2. Improving the Syrian State’s International Image: The recognition of the Kurdish component and the integration of Northeast Syrian institutions enhances Damascus' position in future negotiations.

3. Reducing the Risks of Internal War: The agreement prevents a military confrontation between the SDF and the Syrian army, which contributes to the stabilization of the region.

4. Potential for Attracting International Support: Especially from countries that have supported the SDF, as they may see this agreement as a solution that preserves their interests without the need for direct intervention.

Fourth: The Challenges of the Agreement:

Despite its importance, the agreement will face significant challenges, including:

• Rejection from some opposition forces, who may view it as an attempt to rehabilitate the Syrian regime.

• Unclear provisions that may lead to disagreements during the implementation process.

• The possibility of intervention by regional powers, such as Turkey, which may oppose certain aspects of the agreement.

Conclusion:

This agreement represents an important step toward rebuilding the Syrian state on more inclusive foundations and marks the beginning of a new phase in the country’s history after years of war and conflict. However, it cannot be considered the final solution or a resolution to all the challenges Syria will face in the future. The successful implementation of this agreement requires the concerted efforts of all concerned parties, including the Syrian government, the SDF, and other local and regional forces with interests in the country.

The effectiveness of this agreement depends on the genuine political will of all involved parties and their readiness to make mutual concessions in the interest of Syria’s national future. It is essential that this agreement be translated into practical steps on the ground, including building trust among the various Syrian components, providing real guarantees for citizens' security, and maintaining the unity of the country despite its ethnic, religious, and political diversity.

Achieving stability in Syria also requires the establishment of effective mechanisms to monitor the implementation of the agreement, continuing support for local forces such as the SDF within the framework of the Syrian state, and ensuring the integration of all components of Syrian society into the political process and the management of the country’s affairs. Furthermore, the security and economic challenges, including the return of displaced persons and the rebuilding of institutions, remain some of the most pressing issues that must be addressed sustainably.

Ultimately, reaching a comprehensive agreement between the SDF and the Syrian state is not a final achievement but part of a long path toward peace and stability in Syria. However, if all these factors are taken into account and sufficient political will is available, this agreement could contribute to building a new, more stable, and just Syria, safeguarding the rights of all its citizens regardless of their ethnic or religious affiliations.

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