By: Dr. Adnan Bouzan

If the fall of the Ba'ath regime in Syria leads to the rise of jihadist Islamists to power, Syria will undergo drastic changes on political, social, and economic levels. This scenario raises profound questions about the nature of the new government, its foreign relations, and Syria's future under a system based on a strict religious ideology. 

1. Nature of Governance and the Future of the State:

Jihadist groups often adopt totalitarian visions based on the strict application of Islamic law, according to their own interpretations, which may lead to: 

• Syria transforming into a religious state governed by harsh Islamic laws, potentially restricting political and social freedoms. 

• The abolition of democracy and pluralism, with political opposition, especially liberal and nationalist movements, being excluded.

• The establishment of an authoritarian regime that relies on security and military apparatus to ensure its continuation, with the possibility of internal divisions among different jihadist factions due to ideological and strategic differences. 

2. International Relations and External Intervention: 

The rise of jihadists to power will likely result in Syria's international isolation, with increased prospects for foreign military intervention, particularly from major powers and regional actors who consider jihadist groups a direct threat. Among the potential scenarios are:

• A new Western military intervention led by the United States or an international coalition under the pretext of combating terrorism, which could bring Syria back into the circle of international conflict. 

• Clashes with regional powers such as Turkey, Iran, and the Gulf countries, whose interests may conflict with the nature of the new regime, potentially leading to direct intervention or support for opposition forces. 

• Economic and diplomatic isolation due to the international community's refusal to engage with a government labeled as extremist, which may exacerbate the living conditions of the population. 

3. Social and Economic Implications: 

• Decline in Women’s and Minority Rights: The new authorities may impose strict restrictions on women, and religious and ethnic minorities (Christians, Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and others) could face discrimination, marginalization, or even forced displacement. 

• Economic Collapse: Due to international sanctions, capital flight, and the absence of a stable investment environment.

• Widespread Migration: The country could experience a new wave of displacement, with millions of Syrians fleeing due to social repression, political persecution, or deteriorating economic conditions. 

4. Possibilities of Internal Resistance and Conflicts:

• The emergence of internal resistance movements, whether from secular forces or even moderate Islamists, which could spark internal conflicts. 

• The possibility of internal fractures within jihadist factions due to differing visions and ideologies, which could lead to armed clashes within the ruling camp itself. 

• The outbreak of a new civil war between forces opposing the jihadist rule, such as Kurdish factions, tribal forces, and remnants of the Syrian army, which could complicate the security situation even further.

Conclusion: The rise of jihadist Islamists to power in Syria after the fall of the Ba'ath regime will lead to international isolation, severe economic crises, and deep internal divisions, making stability in the country extremely difficult to achieve. In this scenario, Syria will become a battleground for increasing regional and international conflicts, which could lead to even more complex scenarios, such as division or the continuation of chaos for decades to come.