By: Dr. Adnan Bouzan

Syria is witnessing dangerous developments, particularly in the Syrian coast, according to some reports, which reflect a new shift in the country's political and military landscape. More than a decade after the outbreak of the conflict, Syria remains an open arena for regional and international tug-of-war, with the interests of local and external actors intertwining, in a situation made even more complex by the absence of a comprehensive political settlement. With the worsening of economic and social crises and the emergence of new dynamics on the ground, it has become necessary to analyze the future of this situation within the context of political, military, and international factors, in order to understand the trends of the conflict and the future of the country, and whether Syria is heading towards further fragmentation, or if there are opportunities to redraw the landscape according to new balances.

1. The Future of the Syrian Situation Amid the New Conflict:

Syria continues to suffer from the consequences of the war that broke out in 2011, and now enters a new chapter of violence, where it seems that the balance of power has shifted, allowing new actors to emerge and impose their control through coercive means. With the collapse or erosion of the previous regime, the country has slid into a new phase of internal conflicts fueled by extremist ideologies and sectarian divisions, more than by purely political considerations.

Given the current dynamics, this means the rise of jihadist Islamist factions as ruling forces in Damascus, a development that heralds dire consequences for Syria’s future. The new authority, it seems, does not offer a more open or accepting alternative to political and social pluralism compared to the fallen Ba'athist regime, but rather adopts retaliatory policies against its opponents, without distinguishing between civilians and fighters.

The Syrian situation today appears increasingly complex, with the reshaping of regional and international alliances, making the future of the country more ambiguous. As the influence of jihadist Islamist factions rises in the political scene, Syria is heading towards a new phase of exclusionary and authoritarian rule under a religious pretext, which exacerbates internal divisions and threatens to tear apart the social fabric more severely than it is today.> Under these circumstances, international and regional powers continue to watch the scene with caution, as any direct intervention could lead to the expansion of the conflict rather than containing it. While some countries seek to protect their interests by supporting local proxies, the reality indicates that Syria could turn into a long-term battleground, where each side seeks to impose its vision through force, without any prospect of a comprehensive political solution that would restore stability to the country.

On the other hand, the economic collapse adds another dimension to the crisis, as Syrians suffer from unprecedented levels of poverty and food insecurity, making them more vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups. This means that any new authority, regardless of its orientation, will face enormous challenges in imposing stability, amid the collapse of state institutions and the lack of trust between various societal components.

Therefore, it can be said that Syria’s future depends on a combination of internal and external factors, with violence continuing unless real international understandings are reached to put an end to this ongoing bleeding, and open the door for a comprehensive political settlement to rebuild the state on more stable and inclusive foundations.

2. The International Position: Double Standards or Changing Interests?

The international stance on the Syrian crisis highlights a stark contradiction between declared slogans and actual practices, as evidenced by the re-framing of relationships with individuals and factions that were previously listed as terrorist organizations, such as Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, who is now seen as a key actor in the Syrian scene, and perhaps even a partner in confronting the remnants of the former regime. This shift is not an exception in international politics, but rather reflects a recurring pattern, always justified by the necessities of political reality and strategic interests.

The double standards in dealing with the Syrian issue are not new; international and regional powers have previously supported armed factions under the pretext of confronting greater threats, despite their history of severe human rights violations. What is happening today in the Syrian coast, with violations against unarmed civilians, including women and children, at the hands of the new authority with extremist leanings, is yet another example of how international stances adapt according to the priorities of major powers, far from any real commitment to ethical principles.

However, this shift raises fundamental questions about Syria’s future: Has the primary goal become preventing the return of the previous regime at any cost, regardless of who takes power? Have geopolitical interests completely overshadowed human values, to the extent that the international community no longer has any red lines determining what is acceptable or unacceptable in dealing with the forces controlling the ground? The continuation of this approach will only lead to more chaos and instability, turning the country into an open arena for reshaping regional and international balances, without any consideration for the fate of the Syrian people, who are paying the price for these political calculations.

3. The Impact on the Syrian Social Fabric: The Danger of Fragmentation and Division:

The continued targeting of sectarian groups in Syria, whether against Alawites or any other component, poses an existential threat to the future of coexistence and risks transforming the political conflict into an open sectarian confrontation. This would solidify a logic of mutual revenge and deepen feelings of exclusion and hatred between different social groups. In the absence of a comprehensive national project, social divisions are deepening, paving the way for the collapse of national identity in favor of sub-identities, in a scenario that reproduces models of civil wars seen in other countries, where civil peace becomes impossible without external intervention to restore the situation.

The increasing forced displacement, particularly among the Alawite community, could lead to the creation of homogeneous sectarian zones of influence, opening the door to real division scenarios, either through the imposition of a de facto situation on the ground or through future international agreements that may legitimize this direction. What makes this situation more dangerous is that the fragmentation of Syria's social fabric serves the interests of regional and international powers, which see in a weakened and fragmented Syria a means to secure their influence and control the outcome of the conflict in a way that serves their geopolitical objectives, without regard for the fate or stability of the Syrian people.

In light of these developments, it is impossible to talk about a stable future for Syria unless a political approach is adopted that restores the value of the national identity and counters attempts to turn the conflict into a prolonged internal draining. Ignoring these consequences could turn Syria into a failed state, torn apart by militias and cross-border loyalties, weakening the chances for political and social rebuilding for many years to come.

4. Possible Scenarios for Syria’s Future:

In light of these changes, there are several possible scenarios for Syria’s future:

• The further consolidation of jihadist factions’ control over Damascus and their expansion into other areas, which could prompt international powers to reassess their positions toward them, especially if they pose a regional or international threat.

• The emergence of new alliances among forces affected by the control of radical Islamist factions, potentially leading to a new military confrontation within the country.

• International or regional military intervention, especially by Russia and Iran, to regain their spheres of influence, which could spark a broader war.

• The continuation of the conflict in the form of a war of attrition, with no side achieving a decisive victory, leaving Syria in a state of perpetual chaos.

Conclusion: Where is Justice?

If reports of sectarian targeting of civilians are true, what is happening in Syria constitutes a crime against humanity by all standards, and it calls for a comprehensive condemnation by the international community, regardless of the perpetrating party. Moral responsibility requires standing against any violation of human rights, whether by local parties or external forces. However, in light of the complex international balances, it seems that justice has been reduced to a mere tool used to serve the geopolitical interests of the intervening parties, while the fate of the Syrian people is manipulated for strategic purposes that are far from human values and ethical principles.

Amid this grim scene, the most important question remains: Is there still hope for rebuilding Syria as a unified state, or is what we are witnessing today the final chapter of its disintegration? The reality is concerning, as the challenges facing Syria are deep and complex, and international interests overlap in a way that exacerbates internal divisions. However, the answer to this question is not only tied to the will of the Syrians but also to the international community, which bears the responsibility of providing real support for achieving justice and peace, far from narrow political calculations that may lead to further fragmentation.