By: Dr. Adnan Bozan 

The visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Yasar Güler, and Intelligence Director Ibrahim Kalin to Damascus marks a significant development in the regional and international relations related to the Syrian conflict. First and foremost, it reflects strategic shifts in Turkish policy towards Syria, revealing Turkey's direct engagement in an attempt to pressure various parties to achieve its interests in the region. Additionally, it comes at a sensitive time where regional and international interests overlap, with increasing Israeli and American influence in the Syrian equation.

1. Turkish Approach to Damascus: Attempting to Pressure Damascus and Its Allies

It seems that the visit comes within the context of Turkey's desire to influence developments following the unexpected rapprochement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the new Syrian regime, which could threaten Turkish interests in the region. Turkey, which leads military operations in northern Syria against the SDF linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), considers these forces an existential threat to its national security. In this context, it is believed that the visit of Turkish officials is an attempt to pressure Damascus to dismantle this cooperation or at least to modify it in a way that aligns with Turkish interests.

As negotiations between the SDF and the new Syrian regime progress, Turkish officials are trying to use diplomacy as a tool to influence Damascus and its allies, whether through exploiting Turkish military leverage in northern Syria or through its relations with regional powers such as Russia. Therefore, the visit can be understood as part of Turkey's ongoing efforts to maintain a balance in Syria according to its national interests, with a relentless pursuit of preventing the strengthening of Kurdish influence in northern Syria.

2. Israeli-American Pressure: Reducing Turkish Influence in Syria

On the other hand, it is not surprising that Israel and the United States are taking a firmer stance against the Turkish presence in Syria. Israel, which views Iran's activities in Syria as a direct threat to its security, may not be satisfied with Turkey's role, which could contribute to expanding Tehran's influence in the region. Meanwhile, the United States seeks to reduce Turkey's influence in Syria, as part of the contradictions in American and Western policy in the region, where at times the U.S. supports Kurdish forces against Turkey, while regional allies' disagreements on handling the Syrian crisis are well known.

Thus, Turkey may face pressure not only from Damascus but also from Tel Aviv and Washington to limit its interventions in Syria. Given its military and economic strength, it will be difficult for Turkey to stand alone against these pressures. This increases the complexity of the political scene in Syria, as international powers work to limit Turkish influence through diplomatic and military moves.

3. The Fate of the Agreement Between SDF and Damascus: Is It Ink on Paper?

Regarding the agreement between the SDF and the new Syrian regime, it is likely to be mostly a political step aimed at avoiding direct escalation. The political and military challenges faced by the parties involved, whether Damascus or the SDF, make it difficult to implement such an agreement on the ground. Turkey may be at the heart of this tension, as it will do whatever it can to pressure the regime of Ahmad al-Shara to modify its position in a way that aligns with Turkish interests.

Despite all this, the agreement may help reduce Turkish military escalation against Rojava, especially under Israeli and American pressures on Turkey. The agreement might also help ease the conflict in certain areas such as Afrin, especially if there are informal understandings between the parties regarding the return of some displaced people to their areas. However, the practical implementation of the agreement will still be clouded with uncertainty.

4. Israeli and American Pressures on the White House: Indirect Influence on Turkish Decision-Making

It appears that Israeli and American pressures, through pushing the Syrian file on both the international and regional levels, will have a significant impact on Turkish decision-making. While the White House seeks to achieve political balances between the various competing parties in Syria, Israel continues to pressure Washington to reduce Turkish influence, believing that any increase in Turkish military power in Syria could contribute to strengthening Iran's presence, which many in Israel consider a direct threat to their national security.

5. Conclusion: Turkish Movements and the Coming Path of Events

There is no doubt that the Turkish delegation's visit to Damascus represents an important diplomatic step, but it does not necessarily guarantee tangible results. The current indications suggest that any agreement between the various parties will remain limited, and it may be nothing more than ink on paper given the regional and international challenges that hinder its implementation. As the situation in Syria continues to be complicated, matters remain dependent on the interaction of major and regional powers, and on how Turkey will respond to these developments.

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