By: Dr. Adnan Bozan

As time has passed and events in Syria have unfolded, it seems that the Syrian crisis has entered a new phase following the fall of the Assad regime, which represented one of the main sides of the war. The country has witnessed a dramatic shift toward a more complicated phase. The period after the regime's downfall saw the rise of jihadist groups led by Ahmad al-Shara, known as "Abu Muhammad al-Jolani," who managed to exploit the vacuum caused by the collapse of the central authority to assert control over large parts of the country. This was accompanied by changes in the regional and international balance of power, which led to the continuation of the civil war and turned Syria into a long-term battleground.

1. The Collapse of the Syrian State: The Disintegration of Central Authority

After the fall of the regime, the Syrian state's authority collapsed almost entirely, and various warring factions gained direct influence over the fate of Syrian territories. With the rise of jihadist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham led by al-Jolani, some areas became independent power centers seeking to achieve their own goals, far removed from any central authority. Some regions found themselves under the control of extremist jihadist groups at a time when no party was able to fully control the land.

This tangible disintegration was not just the absence of authority but the complete lack of law in many areas, which led the Syrian people into a state of chaos that reshaped the social and political landscape. Jihadist groups were not only carrying out terrorist operations but were also seeking to establish parallel local authorities, mimicking the fallen regime.

2. The Rise of Jihadist Groups: The Emergence of "Abu Muhammad al-Jolani" and Alternative Power Projects

Once the regime fell in Damascus, jihadist groups armed themselves with the power vacuum, with "Abu Muhammad al-Jolani" emerging as a leader for a political and military project in northwest Syria. Through alliances with other Islamic factions, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, under his leadership, became the dominant force in large areas of Idlib and its surroundings. Al-Jolani was not just a military leader but also represented a direct challenge to the international powers seeking to end the conflict based on their own interests.

The period after Assad's fall was an opportunity for al-Jolani to turn Hayat Tahrir al-Sham into a key player in the Syrian arena, not only through military force but also by linking jihadist groups to a political project aiming to establish what was referred to as an "Islamic State" in the heart of Syria. This project, despite being split from other jihadist forces like ISIS, still posed an existential threat to any attempt to rebuild a central state.

3. Regional and International Transformations: Foreign Interventions and Multiple Agendas

Foreign interventions did not stop at supporting various Syrian war factions but became more complicated after the fall of the regime. Regional and international powers, which had played pivotal roles in supporting certain sides, shifted their focus to attempt to reorder the situation in line with their own interests. Russia, Iran, the United States, and Turkey all found themselves compelled to intervene directly or through local allies, leading to the continuation of the civil war.

The Russian and Iranian military presence in the areas previously controlled by the regime, on one hand, and the U.S. presence in the northeastern regions controlled by Kurdish forces, on the other, alongside Turkey's support for mercenaries in what is called the Syrian National Army in northern Syria, further complicated the military and political scene. While the major powers sought to enhance their influence, jihadist groups led by al-Jolani also pressed against international borders to gain strategic advantages.

4. The Actual Division Phase: Syria as a Failed State

As the strength of jihadist groups increased and the war continued, it became apparent that Syria might fully transform into a failed state, divided into spheres of influence contested by multiple powers. The areas previously controlled by the Assad regime were now subject to actual division into quasi-independent entities, each with its own local and community authority.

While there were some attempts by regional and international powers to impose political settlements, the situation in Syria remained far from stability. The country was divided into spheres of Russian, Iranian, Israeli, American, and Turkish influence, in addition to areas controlled by jihadist groups whose leaders sought to redraw the country's geographical and political map according to their ideological visions.

5. Reconstruction: Who Will Build?

Even if the war has reached a phase of relative freeze in some areas, the issue of reconstruction remains one of the greatest challenges facing Syria in the future. Added to these challenges is a state of social and political fragmentation, as any attempt to rebuild the country's infrastructure will be contingent upon political arrangements, for which no comprehensive solutions have been found so far.

On the other hand, the major powers that supported the sides of the war may seek to benefit from reconstruction processes to serve their own economic and political interests. Russia and Iran are trying to monopolize some projects, while Western countries view any international funding as linked to progress in the political process, which has not yet been realized.

6. Future Scenarios: From Civil War to Settlement

Based on these transformations, several scenarios for Syria's future can be envisioned:

• Continued Conflict and Fragmentation: In the case of a military and political stalemate, Syria may continue as a divided state, with rebellious regions under prolonged conflict between local and regional powers.

• Official State Division: If the current fragmentation persists, a political solution may be imposed that formalizes the country's division into multiple geographical and ethnic entities, with some areas remaining under jihadist control, while regional powers control others.

• Rebuilding the Syrian State: The least likely scenario, but possible if regional and international equations change drastically, allowing for a political process to rebuild Syria based on new balances between local and international powers.

In conclusion, the Syrian civil war has represented a unique crisis in the history of civil wars, where the collapse of the regime has led to the emergence of a new phase of social and political fragmentation. While multiple future scenarios exist, Syria remains at a crossroads, potentially heading toward either permanent division or a complicated reconstruction process, all amid conflicting international interests and local disputes. Ultimately, the return to stability can only occur through comprehensive dialogue that takes into account the complexities of the Syrian crisis and rethinks the concept of the nation-state in the context of the new reality imposed by the civil war.