By: Dr. Adnan Bouzan 

The Syrian coast has recently witnessed significant developments that have reshuffled the political and military landscape, raising fundamental questions about the country's future and the ability of the new authority in Damascus to contain the repercussions of these events. With the fall of the Syrian regime, led by the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party, and the emergence of Ahmad Al-Sharaa (known as Abu Muhammad Al-Julani), who is classified as a terrorist, as a new political and military force, sectarian tensions in the Syrian coast—long a stronghold of the previous authority—have intensified.

The violence in the region was not merely an armed clash between the new ruling forces and the remnants of the former regime. It quickly escalated into widespread retaliatory operations targeting civilians, particularly members of the Alawite sect, historically perceived as a key social base of the ousted regime. Under the pretext of pursuing wanted individuals, the General Security Administration, now in control of the security apparatus, carried out physical liquidation campaigns that included civilians, among them children, women, and the elderly. This scene reminded many of ISIS’s practices during the past years of conflict.

With the rise of identity-based violence and killings, the Syrian coast is facing an escalating humanitarian crisis. The number of displaced people fleeing field executions and random raids has surged, while the international community and human rights organizations have failed to impose any form of oversight or intervention to halt the violations. Amid this tense situation, the new authority in Damascus faces a real test in managing security and political affairs. Will it succeed in restoring stability to the region, or will revenge-driven tendencies and sectarian conflicts lay the foundation for a new phase of instability?

This report delves into the details of the events that have shaken the Syrian coast, shedding light on the practices adopted by the new authority and assessing the likelihood of its success in overcoming sectarian divisions and presenting a governance model different from the previous era. It also explores potential future scenarios, ranging from re-establishing order through force to reaching political solutions that ensure stability beyond the logic of revenge and sectarian conflict.

I. Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s Authority and the General Security Administration: Revenge or a New Order?

Following the fall of the Syrian regime, Ahmad Al-Sharaa, known as Abu Muhammad Al-Julani, emerged as a key player in the political and military scene, exploiting the security vacuum and regional and international shifts. As the General Security Administration assumed responsibility for restoring order and restructuring governance, a series of operations were launched, officially described as necessary measures to track down former regime elements. However, others viewed them as broad retaliatory campaigns targeting political and sectarian opponents alike.

1. Security Campaign or Settling Scores?

Since Al-Sharaa and his government took power, the General Security Administration has conducted mass arrests and field executions affecting hundreds of people, mostly civilians, under the pretext of pursuing remnants of the former regime. With escalating violence, reports have surfaced about sectarian cleansing targeting specific groups, especially the Alawite sect, which was closely associated with the previous regime.

The new government insists these operations are necessary to ensure security and prevent any resurgence of opposition. However, human rights organizations and leaked documents from within the General Security Administration have exposed widespread violations, including arbitrary arrests, executions without fair trials, and identity-based killings—practices reminiscent of extremist groups like ISIS that used violence to impose control.

2. The General Security Administration: A Tool for Order or a New Oppressive Regime?

The General Security Administration, theoretically responsible for maintaining law and order, has transformed into a primary instrument of repression for the new ruling authority. While its leadership claims its mission is to restore stability and prevent chaos, mounting reports highlight horrific violations and war crimes. This raises concerns about whether it will evolve into a police state similar to previous security apparatuses but under a new ideological banner.

3. The Future of the New Authority: Stable Governance or a New Cycle of Violence?

As tensions continue to rise, Ahmad Al-Sharaa and his government face immense challenges. The use of violence as a control mechanism may provoke a fierce backlash from targeted groups, potentially sparking new resistance against his rule. Some analysts argue that the success of this new authority depends on offering a different governance model based on national reconciliation and building genuine civil institutions instead of perpetuating an oppressive security-based rule.

Ultimately, the key question remains: Is Al-Sharaa’s government genuinely striving to build a system based on justice and stability, or is this merely another phase of score-settling that perpetuates violence in a different guise?

II. Identity-Based Crimes and Horrific Massacres: The Syrian Coast in the Eye of the Storm

The Syrian coast, historically a crucial stronghold of the former regime, has witnessed an unprecedented wave of sectarian violence and identity-based killings following the deterioration of the political situation in the country. This region, long known as the political and social center of the Alawite sect, has become a hotspot for internal conflicts and mass killings following the rise of Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s rule. The area quickly turned into a battleground for gruesome massacres and sectarian-driven vendettas targeting civilians from various social backgrounds.

1. Identity-Based Killings

As military and political events escalated, sectarian identity became a major determinant in military operations. Executions, torture, and arrests primarily targeted members of the Alawite sect, raising questions about whether this violence was simply retaliatory in response to the long-standing conflict between the former regime and opposition factions, or part of a systematic policy aimed at dismantling the region's social fabric. Many acts were labeled as "identity-based killings," where security crackdowns targeted anyone suspected of loyalty to the former regime.

2. Horrific Massacres

The coastal region, including Latakia and its surrounding cities and villages, has witnessed mass killings that claimed the lives of hundreds of innocent civilians. The General Security Administration, now the de facto ruling authority, carried out field executions under the pretext of cleansing areas of potential threats to the new order. Entire families were massacred, including children, women, and the elderly, in scenes reminiscent of ISIS’s brutal methods. These massacres were often conducted indiscriminately, demonstrating a blatant disregard for international law and human rights.

III. Can Damascus Restore Order or Will Violence Fuel a New Phase of Conflict?

Following a series of bloody events in the Syrian coast, the central question in political and military circles is whether Damascus can successfully restore security and stability to the region, or if escalating violence will pave the way for a new era of continuous conflict.

1. The New Authority in Damascus: Restoring Order or Deepening the Conflict?

The firm grip of Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s authority over state institutions and security bodies in Damascus signals a determined effort to reassert control and enforce security. However, using the General Security Administration as the main tool to manage the situation raises concerns about whether suppressive measures will truly restore stability or simply fuel further chaos and sectarian strife.

2. Future Conflict Scenarios

If the government continues to rely on excessive security measures without comprehensive political reforms, instability in the Syrian coast is likely to persist. This could lead to the rise of new opposition forces or internal uprisings, adding to the already existing conflicts in other parts of Syria. Conversely, if Damascus succeeds in achieving genuine national reconciliation and provides legal and security guarantees for all factions, it may help rebuild trust and establish long-term stability.

Conclusion

While Damascus is striving to restore security in the Syrian coast, escalating violence may produce unintended consequences, leading to prolonged conflicts. The key to stability lies in the new authority’s ability to implement real reforms beyond the logic of revenge and sectarianism. However, if the current security policies persist, Syrians may find themselves trapped in a vicious cycle of ongoing bloodshed and conflict.